Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
